The 72-Slide Funeral for Intuition

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The 72-Slide Funeral for Intuition

When the metrics multiply, the meaning evaporates.

The laser pointer is dancing a nervous jig across the bottom right corner of slide 42, and I am currently experiencing the lingering, crystalline agony of a brain freeze. It was a pistachio gelato, consumed with far too much urgency in the eleven-minute window between the marketing sync and this quarterly business review, and now my prefrontal cortex feels like it’s being poked by a frozen needle. I’m staring at a bar chart that supposedly explains why our engagement in the Midwest dropped by 12 percent, but all I can think about is how the blue of the chart is exactly the same shade as the gelato tub.

We are currently being held hostage by a deck that contains 72 slides. Each slide is a testament to our ability to measure things, and each slide is a silent confession that we have no idea what those measurements actually mean. The CEO is nodding. He’s been nodding since slide 2. It’s a rhythmic, mechanical movement that suggests he’s either deeply engaged or has successfully transitioned into a state of waking sleep where his neck muscles have taken over the duties of consciousness. I suspect the latter. We have 52 different metrics on the screen right now, ranging from ‘Average Time to Gratification’ to ‘Hyper-local Sentiment Resonancy,’ and I am fairly certain that 32 of them were invented in a fever dream by a junior analyst named Kevin who hasn’t seen the sun in 22 days.

The Data Hoarding Paradox

This is the data-driven life. We hoard data like a nervous squirrel hoards acorns before a nuclear winter, but we don’t actually eat the acorns. We just count them. We build elaborate, glass-walled silos to display the acorns. But we are starving. We are drowning in the ‘how’ and the ‘how much’ and the ‘how often,’ and we are completely, utterly starved for the ‘why’ and the ‘what now.’

The Submarine Standard: Judgment Over Metrics

Charlie D. understood this better than anyone in this room, though he probably wouldn’t be allowed in this room because he smells perpetually of yeast and diesel. Charlie was a cook on a submarine I spent some time researching years ago. He operated in a kitchen-a galley, excuse me-that was roughly the size of 2 phone booths. He had to feed 142 men three times a day using equipment that was older than his father and a set of sensors that consisted of 2 vibrating needles and his own nose. Charlie didn’t have a dashboard. He didn’t have a real-time analytics suite telling him the heat distribution of the sourdough. He had 2 gauges that mattered: the pressure in the steam line and the clock. Everything else was judgment.

“He didn’t look at the digital thermometer. He looked at the way the crust was pulling away from the tin. He felt the humidity in the air. He made a brave choice to pull them out 2 minutes early because he ‘felt’ the heat was running high. […] In a submarine, you don’t have the luxury of data-hoarding. You have to know what matters, or you die. In corporate land, we don’t die. We just have more meetings.”

We use data as a shield. It’s a spectacular way to avoid the messy, frightening work of having an opinion. If I make a decision based on my intuition and it fails, I am the one who failed. But if I make a decision based on ‘The Data,’ and it fails, well, the data was simply ‘incomplete’ or the ‘model required further refinement.’ It is the ultimate corporate absolution. We have replaced the courage of the conviction with the safety of the correlation.

The Trivial vs. The Meaningful

Button Color Argument

0.2%

CTR Difference

VS

Broken Product

FIXED

Reality Check

We optimize the trivial because the trivial is measurable. The meaningful is often invisible to the tracking pixel.

The Cognitive Fog

This obsession creates a cognitive fog. It’s like the brain freeze I have right now-a sharp, distracting pain that prevents me from focusing on the actual flavor of the ice cream. We are so busy tracking the 122 different touchpoints of the customer journey that we forget the customer is a person who is probably just trying to buy a pair of socks before their bus arrives.

We treat humans like variables in an equation, and then we act surprised when the equation doesn’t balance. We have traded empathy for analytics, and we wonder why our brands feel like they were written by a ghost in a machine.

The Ocean of Noise

Take the financial world, for example. It is perhaps the most data-saturated environment on the planet. Your bank can tell you exactly how many times you bought a latte in the last 32 days, but they will bury the most important number-the one that actually impacts your life-deep within 82 pages of legal jargon and fee schedules. They provide an ocean of data to drown out the one drop of wisdom you actually need.

This is why a service like WhipSmart is such a jarring deviation from the norm. They understand that in a world of 52 metrics, you really only need to know the effective interest rate-the one number that tells you if you’re actually winning or losing. It’s the Charlie D. approach to finance: ignore the 202 vibrating needles and look at the pressure gauge that’s about to blow.

We have reached a point where we believe that more information equals more clarity. It’s a lie. More information usually just leads to more noise. It’s the ‘Paradox of Choice’ applied to the boardroom. When you have 2 options, you make a choice. When you have 42 options, you conduct a study. When you have 222 options, you hire a committee to oversee the study, and 12 months later, you’re still standing in the same place, but you have a very expensive PDF to show for it.

Ignoring the Smoke: The Failed Timer

Charlie D. realized that the data was a tool, but it wasn’t the truth. He had followed the digital timer perfectly, ignoring his nose and the smell of the hot oven, and ended up burning 12 loaves of bread because the timer didn’t know the oven was running hot.

We are currently burning the bread. We see the ‘Customer Acquisition Cost’ is down by 2 percent, so we celebrate, ignoring the fact that the customers we are acquiring are leaving after 12 days because they hate the product. We are winning the metric and losing the war.

The Rebellion of Subtraction

I’ve started a small rebellion in my own workflow. I’ve deleted 22 bookmarks to various analytics platforms. I’ve started asking ‘Does this actually matter?’ before I add a chart to a deck. Most of the time, the answer is no. It’s a secular religion where the high priests are the data scientists and the holy scriptures are the SQL queries.

“Every great breakthrough in human history came from someone ignoring the available data. If Steve Jobs had relied on focus groups, he never would have built the iPhone because the data suggested people wanted better keyboards, not glass screens.”

The Rearview Mirror Analogy

Data is a rearview mirror. It tells you exactly where you have been, but it’s a terrible way to see where you are going. It can’t account for the ‘Black Swan’ events or the sudden shifts in human desire. It can only tell you what happened yesterday, and yesterday is a foreign country.

The Fear of Silence

We are afraid of the silence that happens when the data stops. We are afraid of the moment when the dashboard goes dark and we are left with nothing but our own judgment. But that is the only place where wisdom lives. Wisdom isn’t found in the spreadsheet; it’s found in the gaps between the numbers.

The Wisdom in Atrophy

Our intuition is actually just highly-compressed, subconscious data that we’ve gathered through experience. It’s the most powerful tool we have, and we’re letting it atrophy in favor of a 0.2 percent increase in a metric that doesn’t matter. We should try trusting the fact that we are experts.

Judgment is the only thing that can’t be automated, which is exactly why we’re trying so hard to replace it with data.

– The Core Problem

As the meeting breaks up, Kevin the analyst walks past me. He looks like he’s aged 12 years since breakfast. ‘Did you see the spike in slide 52?’ he asks, his eyes glazed and red. ‘It’s a statistical anomaly with a p-value of .02.’ I look at him, really look at him, and I see a person who is starving. ‘Kevin,’ I say, ‘let’s go get some ice cream. I have a theory about pistachio that I can’t prove with a chart, but I think it might change your life.’ He hesitates for 2 seconds, then he nods. It’s the first real decision I’ve seen anyone make all day.

Trust Your Taste

I’m going to buy another gelato. This time, I’ll eat it slowly. We should try trusting the expertise we already possess sometime.

Final Insight

End of Analysis. Trust the Gaps Between the Numbers.